Cinelytic Insights – 2024 American Film Market Special
Throughout the year, Cinelytic has been actively tracking the projections we issued in November 2023 for the full 2024 slate, estimating a total domestic gross of US$8.15b. Our early prediction model goes beyond box office revenue, also forecasting home video and TV earnings, making it an invaluable tool for the film industry. As shown in the graphic below, our domestic box office (DBO) forecasts for 2024 have been remarkably precise, currently aligning at an exceptional 98% accuracy through the end of October:
With the American Film Market (AFM) set to kick off next week—this time in Las Vegas—Cinelytic is using our forecasting tool to take a closer look at a few buzzworthy titles vying for distribution at this year’s event: DAY DRINKER, ALPHA GANG, VICTORIAN PSYCHO, and PENDULUM. Our ROI forecasting, detailed further in these Insights, is particularly valuable for financiers, producers, and equity providers.
In addition, our sales estimates tool offers a distinct advantage, allowing buyers and sellers at AFM to evaluate each title’s per-territory value across all media rights (box office, home video, TV, and ancillary). As the graphic below demonstrates, this tool is especially valuable in a market setting, helping stakeholders determine the right price for each territory’s rights:
DAY DRINKER, with international sales being managed by Lionsgate, represents a comeback effort for Johnny Depp, who stars alongside Penélope Cruz in this intense action thriller. Produced by the team behind the JOHN WICK franchise, the film is directed by Marc Webb, known for his work on blockbuster hits like THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN series and Disney’s forthcoming live-action CINDERELLA reboot.
ALPHA GANG will have global sales responsibilities split between MK2 Films and CAA and is an intriguing blend of sci-fi, period comedy, and a star-studded ensemble featuring Cate Blanchett, Channing Tatum, Dave Bautista, and Zoë Kravitz, among others. The film comes from the same writing and directing duo behind this year’s low-budget indie SASQUATCH SUNSET, representing a substantial leap in scale and pairing their knack for comedic absurdity with an impressive cast and a bigger production canvas.
On the lower budget horror front,VICTORIAN PSYCHO, based on the novel of the same name, stars the very in-demand Margaret Qualley, fresh off her acclaimed role in the body horror film THE SUBSTANCE. Financing responsibilities are being handled by Anton, UTA, and CAA. This project comes courtesy of one of the producers behind this year’s horror phenomenon LONGLEGS and is a period piece set in a haunting Victorian world. It also reunites Qualley and director Zachary Wigon, who teamed up previously in 2022 for the erotic thriller SANCTUARY.
The final intriguing project, PENDULUM, is an upcoming psychological thriller starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt crafted by the creative forces behind 2010’s BLACK SWAN. With Mark Heyman both writing and directing and Darren Aronofsky producing, the title hopes to offer the same intensity and psychological depth that made their previous collaboration a standout. International rights are being managed by Black Bear, while domestic distribution is being handled jointly by UTA, CAA, and WME.
Revenue Forecasting: Spotlight – VICTORIAN PSYCHO
In order to provide sample of our detailed projections, we chose to highlight VICTORIAN PSYCHO and run it through our predictive tool to showcase what may lie ahead for these types of releases in terms of revenue. This tool takes into consideration 19 material input attributes to determine a full-performance waterfall, P&L and ROI.
We estimated a budget of US$10m, an additional US$15m in total P&A costs and proposed a theatrical release strategy of 2,300 screens with Qualley in the lead. The Cinelytic platform predicts a DBO of roughly US$14.0m, domestic gross revenues (BO, HV, TV) that total US$26.7m, and international gross revenues totaling US$22.5m:
Based on the anticipated domestic and international net revenues (including BO, HE, TV net of distribution fees and expenses), we estimate this film’s global value to be US$11.7m.
All to Say…
Cinelytic’s platform provides a competitive edge for buyers at film markets like AFM, where data-driven analyses of price points and optimal release strategies are essential. By leveraging tools such as our per-territory sales estimates and ROI forecasting, stakeholders can gauge a film’s value across various distribution channels.
This level of detail allows buyers to make informed investment decisions, aligning their acquisition prices with realistic revenue potential. For projects like the four analyzed in these Insights, our platform can evaluate a film’s potential based on factors like genre appeal, talent packaging, and marketing budgets, helping to tailor the most effective release strategies. Whether a film’s forecast indicates a theatrical route or a straight-to-streaming model, Cinelytic equips buyers with the analytics to negotiate confidently and strategically, maximizing each title’s profitability in today’s evolving media landscape.
