March Insights From Cinelytic
Q1 Streaming Update and Q2 Box Office Outlook
As we approach the conclusion of Q1 2025, it’s time to assess how major early-year film releases have performed on digital platforms and what may come in the months ahead. Earlier this year, Cinelytic projected a 13% decline in domestic box office (DBO) revenue compared to Q1 2024, forecasting a total of roughly US$1.4b. While we will provide a finalized accuracy update on that projection early next month, current data suggests we were right on the money.
A major factor contributing to this downturn was a Q1 theatrical slate that lacked true tentpole releases. The Top 10 highest-grossing films at the box office in 2025 so far have largely been late 2024 releases, including MUFASA: THE LION KING, SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3, MOANA 2, NOSFERATU and WICKED. Meanwhile, most of the biggest new releases of 2025 have ranked between #10 and #20 in overall DBO performance. With their theatrical runs now complete, some of these titles have made their way to streaming platforms, allowing us to analyze how they have fared in the digital space.
Using our proprietary streaming demand data, which tracks 125m daily peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions worldwide—totaling 35b transactions annually—we evaluated the first seven days of streaming performance for four major early 2025 theatrical releases: DEN OF THIEVES 2: PANTERA, WOLF MAN, FLIGHT RISK and COMPANION:

The action sequel starring Gerard Butler followed a nearly identical trajectory to WOLF MAN, experiencing a notable Day 2 surge before gradually declining. It secured the #1 spot as the most-viewed film for the majority of its first-week streaming run, peaking at 10.4% market share and averaging 7.5% across its debut week. This strong digital showing seemingly outperformed its theatrical reception, as action-heavy films with built-in franchise followings tend to translate well to home viewing. Additionally, with this title debuting on Netflix last week, it could see a major boost in overall streaming numbers.
Leigh Whannell’s latest horror reimagining achieved a Day 2 peak at 10.5% market share and averaging 7.2% for the week. Like many horror films, WOLF MAN saw strong initial interest before leveling off, a pattern consistent with previous genre titles that find an early surge of dedicated viewers before word-of-mouth either sustains or diminishes momentum. Despite a less-than-ideal total box office intake, it did capture the #1 spot during each of its first seven streaming days.
Directed by Mel Gibson and starring Mark Wahlberg, FLIGHT RISK never reached the #1 spot during its first week on streaming. However, it still performed respectably, averaging a 6.1% market share with a peak at 8.7%. The film’s most significant drop-off occurred after Day 4, suggesting a shorter engagement window than expected. While action titles typically maintain strong performance over a sustained period, as we saw with DEN OF THIEVES 2: PANTHERA, this release seems not to have resonated as well as anticipated.
COMPANION, the modestly budgeted sci-fi thriller from Warner Bros. Pictures, had the lowest market share of the four films, averaging 5.7%. However, it displayed one of the most consistent digital performances of the group. This title also saw a small Day 2 bump before stabilizing, allowing it to claim the #1 spot on its second and third days of digital release. This suggests a strong core audience that sought out the film despite its lower overall market capture, making it an unexpected streaming success story.
Does Q2 Look Any Better?
Looking ahead, Q2’s theatrical releases will determine much of the streaming outlook for mid-2025. To remain consistent with the projections we provide, we will now highlight our prediction for Q2 2025. Thankfully, unlike the Q1 drop-off compared to last year, we at Cinelytic project a substantial boost in DBO for Q2 in comparison to 2024—a 34% increase, as shown in the graphic below:

So, what’s behind this massive upswing? Well, the months between April and June 2024 were hit and miss in relation to true “event films”—releases that create an urgency for consumers to experience them in theaters. While there were some clear success stories (INSIDE OUT 2, BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE, KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE), other highly anticipated and costly films vastly underperformed (THE FALL GUY, IF, FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA, HORIZON: AN AMERICAN SAGA PART 1).
Q2 2025, on the other hand, features a more packed slate of more notable films that will likely drive strong theatrical attendance. Some of the most anticipated releases include A MINECRAFT MOVIE, SINNERS, THE ACCOUNTANT 2, THUNDERBOLTS, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING, LILO & STITCH, ELIO, HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, 28 YEARS LATER and F1.
With major franchise sequels, family-friendly animated titles, and high-profile action blockbusters lined up in quick succession, the Q2 slate has a stronger box office potential than last year. If early tracking and audience interest hold, we expect Q2 2025 to be one of the strongest second quarters in recent memory.
All to Say
While Q1 2025 started off with a step back, early signs indicate that we may be taking a significant leap forward heading into the summer box office season. A lackluster theatrical slate and an increasingly competitive streaming landscape led to a slow start to the year, but with a much stronger lineup of films in Q2, audiences appear to have more compelling reasons to return to theaters.
Looking ahead, how these major releases perform will set the tone for the remainder of the year. If Q2 performs as expected, it could create momentum heading into the critical summer box office season, ensuring that 2025 remains on track for a strong overall theatrical recovery.